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Not “the flu”

Posted on April 2, 2020April 2, 2020 By David In Great Falls
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Some people keep trying to push the “it’s just the flu!” narrative, or somehow try to minimize COVID-19 by (mistakenly) comparing it to the flu. Those people are usually also the ones screaming that “the media” isn’t reporting the number of recovered COVID-19 patients. But guess what? Media outlets are trying to report the number of recovered patients, if the data is available – here’s one example from Colorado. In other words – news outlets can’t report local/state data if that data is not released by health departments (county/state).

Believe me – reporters are calling, emailing, and messaging public health officials every day asking for more data, and are usually met with either no reply, or a brief note claiming patient privacy/HIPAA prevents them from releasing such data (which may not be entirely accurate, but is beside the point at this moment). And I know that PH teams are beyond overwhelmed right now – this is almost literally the “worst case” scenario that they plan for, train for, etc. As a former healthcare/disaster planning officer in the Air Force, my heart goes out to all of the PH and DES personnel right now.

Note also that recovery information is also available on one of the most-widely publicized public health sites/map maintained by Johns Hopkins University. Here’s a screenshot taken just after 1 p.m. on Thursday:

One other thought: I have never – NEVER – heard anyone ask about “recovery rates” for the flu – or any other contagious disease, for that matter. The only thing close to that in my experience is when people are referring to survival rates for certain types of cancer – such as the “five-year survival rate for pancreatic cancer.” So I’m not sure why there is much clamor for “recovery rates” for COVID-19.

As for Montana: the “recovery rate” for Montana has not yet been determined, as COVID-19 is still relatively new in our state and there is not enough data to calculate an accurate rate at this point. The first confirmed case was reported less than three weeks ago, and from what I’ve seen, it takes at least two week and usually longer for a person to be deemed “recovered.” Note, however, that Governor Bullock did say on Tuesday that 32 patients in Montana have recovered.

Back to the flu comparison: The flu is a pervasive and deadly disease, and claims thousands of lives every year – but there are preventive measures and treatment for the flu, and it is a well-studied and known disease. There are also many, many, many media reports on the flu every year (many times) with numbers affected, news of flu-shot clinics, prevention measures, etc.

COVID-19 is NOT the flu, and shouldn’t be compared to the flu for several reasons, including the speed at which it is spreading, and that it is a new type of coronavirus that public health officials are still trying to understand.

And for everyone saying, “Why don’t you report on the number of people with the flu, or how many have died?!?!?!?!” — WE (“the media”) DO. Here is an article on the most recent DPHHS report on flu cases in Montana. There hasn’t been an update since early March because – surprise! – DPHHS is overwhelmed dealing with COVID right now.

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